Seriously, though, if the guy with the sign shows anything I think you have to at least consider him as the setup man.
The situation with the
Phillies pen has gotten to the point where you have to wonder if there's a
master plan we haven't seen yet. The options the Phillies have in-house are
limited, and it's hard to imagine they're are going to call on them to pitch
150 or 200 or innings next season.
Last season, 15 different pitchers threw in relief for the Phillies.
They combined to throw to a 3.79 ERA in 539 innings in their time as relief
pitchers. Here's who they were and how many innings each of them
pitched:
| Player | IP |
| G Geary | 91.1 |
| A Fultz | 69.2 |
| T Gordon | 59.1 |
| R Franklin | 53.0 |
| A Rhodes | 45.2 |
| R Madson | 44.0 |
| R White | 37.1 |
| R Cormier | 34.0 |
| C Condrey | 28.2 |
| F Castro | 23.1 |
| B Sanches | 21.1 |
| E Brito | 9.2 |
| M Smith | 8.2 |
| J Santana | 8.1 |
| S Mathieson | 4.2 |
Of those 15, four look to be a sure thing for the '07 version of the
Phillies pen. Those four combined to throw 203 1/3 innings as
relievers in '06 and pitched to a 3.36 ERA
| Player | IP | ER |
| Geary | 91.1 | 30 |
| Gordon | 59.1 | 22 |
| Madson | 44 | 22 |
| Smith | 8.2 | 2 |
| Total | 203.1 | 76 |
The 539 innings Phils
relievers threw last season was fourth highest in the National League.
For the sake of this example let's say next season with the improved
starting rotation the pen will only be called on to throw 500 innings.
If those four players threw exactly the same number of innings in relief
next year, and allowed the same number of earned runs, for the Phillies' pen
to have a similar ERA in 500 innings in '07, the guys in the bullpen other than the four would
have to throw 296 2/3 innings and allow 135 earned runs. That would have
them pitching to a 4.10 ERA.
The 4.10 ERA isn't going to happen, but it's not nearly as scary as the 296
2/3 innings the Phillies would need from other pitchers.
Madson and Smith seem sure to pitch more innings in relief in '07 than they
did in '06. The innings for Gordon seem about reasonable. Geary will
probably throw a few less. Even if you double Madson's relief innings to
88, which would put him just above the number of innings he pitched in '05
when he was in the pen full-time, and pencil Smith in to throw 50 innings as
a left-handed specialist, it still only gives you 288 2/3 innings from the
big four.
It leaves 211 1/3 innings to be pitched by other guys to get to 500. That's
a lot of Antonio Alfonseca, Jim Ed Warden and their ilk, even if
everything goes great with Madson, Smith, Geary and Gordon.
Even of the four guys back from last year, three were good in '06 and the
two that pitched a significant number of innings seem like candidates to be
off that pace in '07. Gordon is a year older after not pitching well in the
second half of the season in '06. Geary was pushed on hard last season and
could still be a solid reliever out of the pen if he adds another half a run
to his ERA. One would assume that Madson's going to be better, but he might
need to be a whole lot better. I'm rooting for Matt Smith just like
everybody else is, but if he strikes out Chipper Jones on three pitches on
opening day he'll have 21 innings of major league experience a couple of
months before his 28th birthday.
On the plus side of the ledger there's really not much except for blind
faith in a Gillick plan that's yet to be revealed. It's starting to
look like Fabio Castro could be the real deal and give the Phillies good innings
as a reliever this season if the team abandons the idea of sending him to
the minors to work as a starter. Maybe one of those other guys without much
experience can come through and contribute. But surely Gillick has
something up his sleeve besides Dustin Hermanson. Wouldn't you think?
Rick Helling retired.
Dustin Hermanson is working out for teams this week in Arizona.