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Catch and throw guys

By egrissom | February 5, 2010

As I wrote earlier this week, Carlos Ruiz had a nice season with the bat in 2009 that put him on the list of the best hitting catchers in baseball. Prior to ‘09, though, Ruiz hadn’t excelled offensively with the Phils. Despite the lack of offensive production, Ruiz had a reputation as a solid defender and as a guy who helped to get the most out of the Phillies pitchers.

Did Phillies pitchers really fare better when pitching to Ruiz than they did when pitching to other catchers on the team did? Well, some did and some didn’t. In today’s post I’ll look at the six Phillies who started the most games for the team in 2009 and compare their results when pitching to Ruiz and when pitching to somebody else.

The best cases for Ruiz among the ‘09 starters from the Phils were for Happ and Hamels. The table below shows how Happ fared when pitching to Ruiz in ‘09 compared to how he fared when pitching to other Phillies catchers:

So that table suggests that Ruiz was catching for 63.5% of the batters that Happ faced and other Phillies catchers was catching for the other 36.5% of hitters. With Ruiz catching, opponents hit 226/292/369 against Happ and with another Phillies catcher behind the plate they hit 276/343/456 against him.

Opposing teams scored about .079 runs per plate appearance against Happ for the year. .069 runs per PA against him with Ruiz behind the plate and .096 runs per PA against him with someone else behind the plate. .096 is about 1.39 times as much as .069.

Happ didn’t face the same batters with Ruiz behind the plate as with the other guys catching, so maybe it was a fluke and maybe it wasn’t. Either way, Happ clearly had better results in 2009 when pitching to Ruiz.

So did Hamels.

The numbers for Hamels pitching to Ruiz improved a lot as well, even more than they did for Happ. The difference between what batters did with Ruiz catching and others catching is so dramatic it makes you wonder how much of a role the catcher he was throwing to played a role in the disappointing year for Hamels. Opponents hit 330/368/570 against Hamels when he was pitching to Bako, for example. Given how high the percentage of the batters that Hamels faced with Ruiz catching, though, I would guess that even if you were to pull out the ugly numbers with Bako behind the plate for Hamels his numbers were still a lot worse than they had been in 2008.

Anyhow, if you were trying to argue that the Phillies pitchers get better results with Ruiz behind the plate, the ‘09 outcomes for Happ and Hamels would be a great place to start.

Things a little less sunny after that, though. Moyer and Myers had worse results throwing to Ruiz in 2009. Lee didn’t throw to him much, but his results were worse throwing to Ruiz as well compared to the other catchers for the Phils. Blanton was kind of in-between. Here’s Blanton:

Blanton’s numbers for 2009 were very similar whether Ruiz was catching or wasn’t catching. The opponent OPS was a little better when someone other than Ruiz was behind the plate, but he allowed fewer runs per plate appearance with Ruiz behind the dish.

Moyer, Myers and Lee had worse results with Ruiz catching.

Moyer was much worse.

The slugging percentage is the thing that sticks out for the Moyer table. By batters faced, Moyer pitched to Ruiz about half of the time. He faced 699 batters on the season. The 334 batters he faced with someone besides Ruiz catching combined to hit seven home runs. The 365 batters he faced with Ruiz catching hit 20 home runs.

Myers also threw to Ruiz and other catchers about equally and had better results pitching to other guys:

Like Moyer, opponents posted a much higher slugging percentage against Myers when Ruiz was behind the plate.

Ruiz caught in just three of the 12 games that Cliff Lee started during the regular season. The numbers below include just his results throwing to Phillies catchers last year (not Cleveland catchers).

Not sure what you want to make of that, if anything. Ruiz and Lee had a whole lot of success working together in the post-season.

Finally, here’s what the table looks like for all Phillies pitchers combined (not just the six mentioned above):

With Ruiz behind the plate, opposing batters scored .109 runs per plate appearance compared to .120 runs per PA with someone else behind the plate. That’s about 91.1% of the runs allowed per plate appearance with Ruiz behind the plate as with someone else.

The Phillies also allowed fewer runs per plate appearance overall with Ruiz behind the plate in 2008 and in 2007. In 2008 they allowed about 95.5% of the runs per plate appearance with Ruiz behind the plate as with other catchers and in 2007 they allowed about 97.0%.

The Phillies signed pitcher Oscar Villarreal to a minor league deal and will invite him to Spring Training. The 28-year-old righty did not pitch in 2009 after having Tommy John surgery in April. He has thrown 336 career innings, all in the NL, pitching to a 3.86 ERA with a 1.37 ratio. The linked article says he will not be ready for Opening Day.

The Phillies also signed switch-”hitting” outfielder Freddy Guzman to a minor league deal. Guzman is 29 and has a career on-base percentage of .255 and a career slugging percentage of .274. The linked article says the deal does not include a Spring Training invite, so it’s not clear what his role will be. Just throwing things out here, but my guess would be that his role is to have someone athletic-looking to fill a uniform if everyone on the 40-man roster is killed in some kind of tragic blimp accident. In the good news department he stole 116 bases over the past two seasons in the minors so he may be able to help your Triple-A roto team. In his defense, his career line of 211/255/274 has come in just 102 plate appearances and he’s hit a more respectable 270/344/360 over more than 3,000 at-bats in the minors.

Topics: catching | 4 Comments »

As good as it gets?

By egrissom | February 3, 2010

Under his new contract, Carlos Ruiz will make $1.9 million in 2010, $2.75 million in 2011 and $3.7 million in 2012. Did the Phillies get a good deal or not? The table below shows, for players across both leagues who got at least 200 plate appearances as a catcher, the top 15 catchers by OPS and their salaries for 2009:

Ruiz’s value comes from more than just what he does with the bat, but he fared pretty well with the bat last year as well, even before he hit .341 in the post-season. Only seven catchers across either league put up a better OPS while playing catcher.

Whether the deal is good for the Phillies going forward or not, getting Ruiz for $475,000 in 2009 clearly was. Of the eight catchers who put up a better OPS, only two of them, Miguel Montero and Chris Iannetta, were paid less than Ruiz in 2009. Among all 15 players on the list above, only five made less than Ruiz.

When you consider just the offense, though, I think there are reasons to worry about Ruiz. He just turned 31 and is coming off of what is clearly the best year of his career with the bat. Ruiz hit 255/355/425 in 2009, but came into the season with a career line that was a meager 242/329/359. That .688 OPS is almost a hundred points less than his mark for 2009. His on-base percentage for his minor league career was .331 — much worse than his career-best .355 from 2009.

There were 42 players in the leagues combined that got at least 200 plate appearances while playing catcher in 2009. Had Ruiz put up his career OPS of .688 in 2009 that would have been 27th of the 42. So let’s hope the guys the Phillies are paying $3.7 million a year in a couple of years is closer to the guy who’s eighth on the list than the guy who’s 27th on the list. Offensively, at least, that’s not real hard to replace. Jason Jaramillo, for example, was 29th on the catcher list by OPS for 2009. He hit 255/312/368 for the Pirates this year, a .680 OPS, and he won’t be making $3.7 million in 2012.

I think there are two primary arguments that you can make that the Phillies aren’t going to regret paying Ruiz $3.7 million in 2012. The first is that his production with the bat last year wasn’t a fluke and he will continue to hit that well or nearly that well for the next couple of seasons. If that’s how you feel, I hope you’re right. But again, he’s old and his .781 OPS from last season is better than his career OPS in the minor leagues (.754). The other argument is harder to quantify, but it’s possible that Ruiz is so good defensively and so good at handling pitchers that even if his offense does slide back to his career levels, he’s still worth the investment.

The Phillies were expected to be one of many teams watching Noah Lowry throw yesterday in Arizona, but the workout was postponed. The 29-year-old lefty has a career 4.03 ERA but hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2007 due to thoracic outlet syndrome.

This suggests that Bastardo and Escalona both have real chances to start the season on the active rosters as lefties out of the pen.

This says the Phillies have been trying to sign a veteran lefty and have been trying to ink Alan Embree or Ron Mahay to a minor league deal.

Topics: catching | 7 Comments »

Second helpings

By egrissom | January 28, 2010

It might not be till we’re well into the 2010 season, but I think that when the batting order settles down for the Phillies it will go Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Polanco, Ruiz. In this article, though, Manuel seems to suggest that the Phillies may start the season with Polanco hitting second and Victorino hitting sixth or seventh.

I think he’ll change his mind before 2010 is over. Either way, are the Phillies better off with Polanco or Victorino hitting second?

If you were to make the decision based solely on their numbers from last season, Victorino was clearly the better hitter and the better choice to fill the two-hole in the order. Victorino hit 292/358/445, topping Polanco’s 285/331/396 line for the year in all three categories.

One of Polanco’s biggest problems in 2009 was that he didn’t hit left-handed pitching. At all. Both Polanco and Victorino have been good hitters against lefties over their career — Polanco has a 316/357/462 line against them for his career and Victorino is at 288/357/479. Polanco struggled against them in 2009, though. He played a full season and hit a weak 266/304/434 against left-handed pitching while Victorino pounded away to the tune of 314/385/459.

Given how much better Polanco’s career line against left-handed pitching is than the numbers he put up last season, it sure seems likely he’ll bounce back against lefties in 2010. Lets’ hope so, especially if he’s going to be hitting second against them.

The chart below shows numbers for Victorino and Polanco for ‘09 and for their careers along with the average numbers for #2, #6 and #7 hitters in the NL last season (although I don’t think you’re going to see a lot of lineups in ‘10 that include Utley, Howard, Werth and Ibanez with none of those players hitting second that would have Victorino hitting sixth). They are ordered by OPS.

So, again, Polanco didn’t have a good 2009. He was outhit by the average NL #2 hitter while Victorino was a lot better than the average #2 hitter. On the other hand, over their careers both players have been better than the average #2 hitter was in the NL in 2009.

The biggest question we’re going to get at least part of an answer to in 2010 is whether the weak ‘09 season for Polanco is a fluke or part of a trend. While he and Victorino have very similar numbers over their careers I think it’s very reasonable to expect that Victorino will be the more productive offensive player the rest of the way. Here’s the percentage of plate appearances in which the two have gotten hits, walks or extra-base hits over the past three seasons:

For each of the three categories Polanco’s numbers are down in 2008 and 2009 compared to the previous year. The numbers aren’t as dramatic for Victorino, but his numbers have generally been getting better.

Important to remember is that Polanco had a monster season in 2007, probably the best of his career. He hit a career-high .341 and on-based a career-high .388. So there was a lot of room to fall. In terms of the percentage of plate appearances in which they got a hit or a walk, Polanco buried Victorino in 2007. It was very close in 2008 — 33.86% for Polanco and 33.81% for Victorino with more of Victorino’s hits going for extra-bases. In 2009, Victorino sailed past Polanco. We’ll see if it’s for good or not.

Ben Sheets signed a one-year, $10 million contract with Oakland. The linked article also says that Greg Golson is now a Yankee.

Charlie Manuel has lost about sixty pounds.

MLB.com announced it’s list of the top 50 prospects, which includes Domonic Brown at 14 and Phillippe Aumont at 47 (that link is unusually interesting and includes video of the players). Michael Taylor is 35 and Kyle Drabek 17.

Topics: offense | 7 Comments »

Touching base (third)

By egrissom | January 26, 2010

Back in November I looked at some of the available players who looked like they might be a good match for the Phils at third base. The Phillies landed on Placido Polanco and most of the rest of that group has found a home by now as well:

I don’t think the Polanco contract looks great in relation to the signings for the group given the length of Polanco’s new deal. I would rather have Polanco for three years at his contract than Figgins for four years at his contract. I’m not as sure about the rest of the group.

After the Phillies declined Feliz’s option for 2010 I would guess they couldn’t have signed him as a free agent for one-year, $4.5 million even if they had wanted to. They might have been better off if they did.

Glaus’s signing may be the steal of the group, cause if he’s healthy he’s a lock to be the best offensive player in the group. Even if he’s not a hundred percent, there’s still a good chance he’s the best hitter in the group in 2009. Let’s just hope he really can’t play third base at all.

I think the O’s got a great deal on Atkins, too. I think it’s much more likely that he will see time at third in the future, despite Baltimore’s preference to play him at first. It’s undeniable that he was miserable in 2009, but including that awful year he has hit 292/359/472 over the past four seasons and averaged 21 homers and 94 RBI. Let’s hope he really can’t play third, either.

I’m definitely rooting for Polanco to hit .320 with 15 home runs. And maybe he will. He’s getting old, though, and he’s coming off a bad year. If I were guessing, Feliz and Crede are the only players in the group that I feel confident that Polanco will outperform offensively in 2010. And that’s in year one of a three-year deal. And maybe he can play third, but he’s not a third baseman. So let’s hope for the best. But the time that’s past since the signing hasn’t done a whole lot to make me feel better about the deal for the Phillies.

Joe Blanton and the Phillies agreed to a three-year, $24 million deal.

Victorino and the Phils agreed to a three-year, $22 million deal.

The Phillies and Ruiz agreed to a three-year, $8.85 million deal.

This suggests the Phillies have agreed to a one-year deal with right-handed pitcher Jose Contreras, which is worth about $1 million. Contreras pitched for the White Sox and Rockies last year, posting a 4.92 ERA with a 1.47 ratio over 131 2/3 innings. He spent most of the past three years with the White Sox and has a 5.09 ERA over the past three seasons. He was traded to the Rockies at the end of the 2009 season and he got his first chance to pitch for a NL team — in seven appearances he threw to a 1.59 ERA over 17 innings but with a 1.65 ratio (his ERA+ while throwing to a 1.59 ERA with the Rockies was 288).

Topics: third base | 14 Comments »

Empty nest syndrome

By egrissom | January 21, 2010

Phillies batters hit with the bases empty in about 56.1% of their plate appearances in 2009 and in those plate appearances they drove in 16.2% of the runs that the Phillies scored. For the eight Phillies regulars, here’s the percentage of their plate appearances that came with the bases empty and the percentage of the runs they drove in last year that came with the bases empty:

So of those eight, Rollins, Victorino and Ruiz got a higher percentage of their plate appearances with the bases empty than was the average for the team. Werth , Utley and Ibanez were the only three who had a higher percentage of their RBI come with the bases empty than was average for the team.

If Rollins at the top of the list and Howard at the bottom of the list maintained those percentages over a season in which they both got 650 plate appearances, Rollins would get about 430 plate appearances with the bases empty and Howard would get about 322. That’s 108 more times at the plate with the bases empty for Rollins.

The Phillies are trying to avoid arbitration hearings with Blanton, Ruiz and Victorino. This suggests that Blanton was offered $7.5 million and is seeking $10.25, Victorino was offered $4.75 million and wants $5.8 million and Ruiz is looking for $2.5 million and was offered $1.7 million.

This suggests that reliever Eric Gagne was expected to have a tryout with the Phillies yesterday afternoon. The righty Gagne turned 34 in January. He didn’t pitch in the majors in 2009 after a weak season with the Brewers in 2008. He made 17 starts for the Quebec Capitales in the independent CamAm league in ‘09 and threw to a 4.65 ERA with a 1.38 ratio in 102 2/3 innings, which, when translated from the French, likely proves to be impressive, or, more likely, not impressive or somewhere in-between. Either way, he was really good in 2003 and if there’s some way the Phillies can capitalize on that I’m all for it.

Topics: offense | 18 Comments »

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